-About this book
One of the best books ever written about intelligence analysis and its long-term lessons. Brilliant, lucid and thought-provoking’ Christopher Andrew, author of The Defence of the Realm: The Authorized History of MI5
‘An invaluable guide to avoiding self-deception and fake news’ Melanie Phillips, The Times
From the former director of GCHQ, learn the methodology used by the British intelligence agencies to reach judgements, establish the right level of confidence and act decisively.
Intelligence officers discern the truth. They gather information – often contradictory or incomplete – and, with it, they build the most accurate possible image of the world. With the stakes at their absolute highest, they must then decide what to do.
In everyday life, you are faced with contradictory, incomplete information, too. Reading the news on social media, figuring out the next step in your career, or trying to discover if gossip about a friend is legitimate, you are building an image of the world and making decisions about it.
Looking through the eyes of one of Britain’s most senior ex-intelligence officers, Professor Sir David Omand, How Spies Think shows how the big decisions in your life will be easier to make when you apply the same frameworks used by British intelligence. Full of revealing examples from his storied career, including key briefings with Prime Ministers from Thatcher to Blair, and conflicts from the Falklands to Afghanistan, Professor Omand arms us with the tools to sort fact from fiction, and shows us how to use real intelligence every day.
-Contents
Introduction.
Why we need these lessons in seeking independence of mind, honesty and integrity
PART ONE: AN ANALYST SEES: FOUR LESSONS IN ORDERING OUR THOUGHTS
Lesson 1: Situational awareness. Our knowledge of the world is always fragmentary and incomplete, and is sometimes wrong
Lesson 2: Explanation. Facts need explaining
Lesson 3: Estimations. Predictions need an explanatory model as well as sufficient data
Lesson 4: Strategic notice. We do not have to be so surprised by surprise
PART TWO: THREE LESSONS IN CHECKING OUR REASONING
Lesson 5: It is our own demons that are most likely to mislead us
Lesson 6: We are all susceptible to obsessive states of mind
Lesson 7: Seeing is not always believing: beware manipulation, deception and faking
PART THREE: THREE LESSONS IN MAKING INTELLIGENT USE OF INTELLIGENCE
Lesson 8: Imagine yourself in the shoes of the person on the other side
Lesson 9: Trustworthiness creates lasting partnerships
Lesson 10: Subversion and sedition are now digital
PART FOUR
1-A final lesson in optimism
10-Acknowledgements
11-Notes and further reading
12-Index
-caractéristiques
Date de parution :29 octobre 2020
Éditeur : Viking
Langue : Anglais
NB.de pages : 352 pages
ISBN-10 : 0241385180
ISBN-13 : 978-0241385180
Poids: 468 g
Dimensions : 14.4 x 3.3 x 22.2 cm
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