Your Life in Numbers: Modeling Society Through Data,Pablo Jensen

-Résumé

More than 300 years ago, Isaac Newton created a mathematical model of the solar system that predicted the existence of a yet unknown planet: Neptune. Today, driven by the digital revolution, modern scientists are creating complex models of society itself to shed light on topics as far-ranging as epidemic outbreaks and economic growth. But how do these scientists gather and interpret their data? How accurate are their models? Can we trust the numbers?

-Contents

1 -Introduction

Going Further

2 -Three Simple Models

2.​1 Do Segregated Neighbourhoods Imply Racist Residents?​

2.​2 Economic Competition on the Beach

2.​3 Social Avalanches

Going Further

3- What Can Be Learnt from Simple Models?​

Going Further

4 -Reality Check for Simple Models

4.​1 The Physics of Elections

4.​2 Mathematical Smoke Curtains

4.​3 The Shape of Cities

Going Further

5 -A Physical Simple Model

Going Further

6 -What Are Simple Models Worth For?​

7 -Complexity:​ Step by Step

7.​1 Ants’ Nests

7.​2 Framed Human Action:​ Car Traffic and Pedestrians

7.​3 What Are These Models For?​

Going Further

8- Complex Models to Understand Complex Social Situations

8.​1 Predicting Economic Growth

8.​2 The Future Is Like the Past

8.​3 Modelling the Job Market

Going Further

9-Modelling Epidemics

9.​1 Individual Models

9.​2 Brute-Force Big Data

9.​3 Controlling Complexity

Going Further

10 -Why Weather/​Climate Forecasts Can Be Trusted

10.​1 Predicting the Weather

10.​2 A Tamed Virtual Earth

10.​3 Predicting the Climate!

10.​4 Why Did Climatologists Succeed?​

Going Further

11 -We Are Not Social Atoms

Going Further

12 -Social Data Are Soaked by Social Complexity

12.​1 Careful with Data!

12.​2 Data on Social Regularities

12.​3 Rich Data, Needs Only (Conceptually) Simple Modelling

Going Further

13 -Machines that Learn How to Model

13.​1 Neural Networks

13.​2 World Chess Champion

13.​3 Predicting the Success of Tweets

13.​4 Predicting Life Trajectories

13.​5 Computer Vision

Going Further

14 -Starting from Data to Hunt Causes

14.​1 Why Is This Happening?​

14.​2 Complex Causality:​ Whimsical Causes and Effects

14.​3 Farewell to the Analytical Method?​

Going Further

15- A Moral Thermometer?​

15.​1 How Hot Is It Today?​

 15.​2 The Construction of the Scale

15.​3 An Absolute Temperature

15.​4 Temperature as an Institution

15.​5 Building the Moral Thermometer

15.​6 The Perceived Temperature

Going Further

16 -Where Do Indicators Lead Us?​

16.​1 Compute the Profitability of Public Projects

16.​2 Ranking Universities

16.​3 Evaluating Researchers

16.​4 The Origin of the Indexes

16.​5 Indexes Are Not Perfect…

16.​6 But Can Be Useful!

16.​7 Where Does This Indicator Lead Us?​

Going Further

17- Which Numbers for the Future?​

17.​1 Social Numbers Were Invented by Centralized Powers

17.​2 Lost Individuals

17.​3 Markets to Replace Planning

17.​4 Care for Public Numbers

17.​5 Planning as a Common Destiny

Going Further

18 -Conclusion

Acknowledgments

Annexes

-caractéristiques

Date de parution :3 mars 2021

Editeur : Copernicus  

Language : English

NB.de pages : 122 pages

ISBN-10 : 3030651029

ISBN-13 : 978-3030651022

poids : 505 g

Dimensions : 15.49 x 23.5 cm